![]() All of the Sagarin predictions used as of the 2018-19 season are the “Rating” predictions, which is the new version of the “COMBO” predictions. UPDATE: The Sagarin Ratings have undergone some changes recently. The bottom of the Sagarin-rankings page (linked to above) lists the Division I basketball games for that day along with three different spreads , titled COMBO, ELO, and BLUE, which are based on three slightly different calculations. The Sagarin rankings aim to do the same thing as the KenPom ratings, but use a different formula, one that doesn’t (appear to) factor in stats like shooting percentage (though the algorithm is proprietary and, thus, not entirely transparent). These days, it’s uncommon to see a point spread at reputable college basketball betting sites that deviates from the KenPom predictions by more than a point or two, unless there’s a significant injury or suspension at play. Of course, it wasn’t long before the sportsbooks realized this and started using KenPom, themselves, when setting their odds. It was more accurate than the sportsbooks at predicting how a game would turn out (particularly in terms of totals) and certain bettors caught on. In its younger days, KenPom created a windfall for basketball bettors. But the predictive part of the site also factors in home-court advantage, so KenPom will frequently predict that a lower-ranked team will win, depending on where the game is played. Higher-ranked teams are predicted to beat lower-ranked teams on a neutral court. In the words of creator Ken Pomeroy, “he purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors.” Without going too far down the rabbit hole, his ranking system incorporates statistics like shooting percentage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule, ultimately calculating offensive, defensive, and overall “efficiency” numbers for all teams in Division I. The KenPom ratings are highly influential when it comes to betting on college basketball. KenPom and Sagarin are both math-based rankings systems, which provide a hierarchy for all 353 Division I basketball teams and predict the margin of victory for every game. What Are the KenPom and Sagarin Rankings? If you bet with any regularity, you are going to lose some of the time.īut history indicates that you can increase your chances of winning by utilizing the predictions systems available online. Let’s get one important piece of information out of the way right from the jump: there is no magic formula for winning all your college basketball wagers. When there is a discrepancy and the actual point spread lies somewhere in between, bettors can find value in siding with the more accurate model.Often KenPom and Sagarin agree on what is likely to happen in a game, but they also diverge significantly on a semi-regular basis.They are highly influential amongst bettors, and the actual spreads used by sportsbooks tend to factor in their predictions. The KenPom and Sagarin rankings are computer-based ratings systems which provide predictions for college basketball games.
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